FORECASTING THE LOAD DURATION CURVES FOR LONG-TERM OPTIMIZATION OF ENERGY SYSTEMS

A methodology of forecasting the main characteristics of load duration curves is described: the coefficient of unevenness, the load factor and the magnitude of power consumption. The characteristics are necessary for predicting of the electrical load duration curves over long time periods. Based on extensive statistical information on the hourly loads of the Belarusian energy system for the period from 1997 to 2014, historical trends of characteristics change were found. Each edge scenario was formed by combining the main characteristics of the load duration curve. Scenario approach and the previously developed method of operative restoration of the curves of the duration of the electrical load on the basis of its main characteristics make it possible to obtain possible boundary forms of these curves for a number of future years. A feature of the approach of the proposed methodology is that such characteristics as the amount of power consumption, as well as the shape of the curves of the duration of electric load are predicted in a certain ranges. The width of the ranges is justified by the analysis of the retrospective information and can be adjusted taking into account the newly received information. The proposed approach can be used in optimization programs of energy system planning. The obtained numerical results can be used to optimize the structure of the Belarusian energy system.

1. Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP). A computer code for power generating system expansion planning. Version WASP-IV. User Manual. Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2001. Available at: http://www-pub.iaea. org/MTCD/publications/PDF/CMS-16.pdf (Accessed 5 July 2017).

2. Model for Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED). User’s Manual for Version MAED-1, IAEA-TECDOC-386. Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency, 1986. Available at: http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore Public/18/037/ 18037998.pdf (Accessed 5 July 2017).

3. Mel’nikov A. S., Popov B. I. Analytical representation of electrical load duration curve for optimization research. Vestsi Natsyyanal’nai akademii navuk Belarusi. Seryya fizika-technichnych navuk = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. Physical-technical series, 2017, no. 4, pp. 63-67 (in Russian).

4. The Concept of Energy Security of the Republic of Belarus. Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on 23.12.2015 no. 1084. Available at: http://www.government.by/upload/docs file5a034ca617dc35eb.pdf (Accessed 1 July 2017).

5. Mihalevich A. A., Aleksandrovich S. A. Nuclear power and structure of energy consumption. VI Mezhdunarodnaya konferentsiya “Yadernye tekhnologii XXI veka”: doklady, Minsk, 25-27 oktyabrya 2016 g. [VI International Conference “Nuclear technologies of the 21th century”: reports]. Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika Publ., 2016, pp. 11-15 (in Russian).